Thailand may see foreign tourist arrivals surpassing a pre-pandemic record next year as a recovery in the global travel industry gathers momentum, according to online travel platform Agoda Holdings Co.

The company is “optimistic” about arrivals topping 39 million next year due to Thai government’s visa waiver schemes and an expected increase in flight capacity serving the Southeast Asian nation, Chief Executive Officer Omri Morgenshtern said.

The forecast for a continued recovery in arrivals echoes views of various Thai agencies and ministries and augurs well for the tourism-reliant economy. The country has already seen a surge in tourist arrivals after the industry was devastated by the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Unless there’s an external event that we can’t foresee and unless we do something wrong, I think there’s a chance we’ll cross the 2019 number of tourist arrivals into Thailand,” Morgenshtern told reporters in Bangkok on Wednesday. “Our data suggests that Thailand is very addictive. About 46 per cent of travellers that we see are coming for a second or third or fourth time.”

Thailand is Agoda’s second-biggest destination for repeat visitors after Japan, said Morgenshtern. Agoda is part of US-headquartered Booking Holdings Inc.

More than 29 million tourists have visited the country so far this year, on course to meet Thai government’s full-year target of 36.7 million. In 2019, Thailand saw record foreign arrivals – almost 40 million – which generated US$60 billion in revenue.

China remains the biggest source of tourists to Thailand, with nearly 6 million visitors this year. But despite the recovery, Thailand may not yet achieve its target of 3 trillion baht (US$88 billion) in tourist receipts this year as travel spending is curbed by a global economic slump.

Morgenshtern said he was “a little bit worried” about a new pre-departure electronic travel authorisation scheme being considered by Thailand. “Every time you charge money for something, you lose people. And when people need to fill a form, it’s complicated and they end up not coming,” he said.